By Kate Kelland and Ludwig Burger
LONDON/FRANKFURT (Reuters) – U.S. President Donald Trump’s gender, age and weight are all factors that make him more vulnerable to developing severe COVID-19, and give him a notional risk of around 4% of dying from it, health experts said on Friday.
The probability is hard to assess precisely, however, since factors such as overall fitness and activity levels, pre-existing conditions and recent medical research can all make a significant difference.
A working paper by the U.S. National Bureau of Economic Research published in July put an infected but otherwise healthy 70- to 79-year-old’s risk of dying from COVID-19 at 4.6%, regardless of gender.
David Spiegelhalter, a professor of risk and an expert in statistics at Britain’s Cambridge University, cited a COVID-19 survival calculator that put the mortality rate for an otherwise healthy 74-year-old white man with COVID-19 during the peak of the pandemic in